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Lautaro de Buin vs Fernández Vial — Segunda División 2020

Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
3/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lautaro de Buin39%
×Draw27%
Fernández Vial35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lautaro de Buin
1.31
Fernández Vial
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.63
Fernández Vial
1.21

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.25
Fernández Vial
1.00

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw
65%
Lautaro de Buin or Fernández Vial
73%
Draw or Fernández Vial
61%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
17%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
73%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
38%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
14%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
71%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
35%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
53%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more
39%
level
27%
Fernández Vial scores more
35%

Lautaro de Buin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Lautaro de Buin 4–3 Fernández Vial

Lautaro de Buin beat Fernández Vial 4-3 in Segunda División on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.