Fernández Vial 3–1 Lautaro de Buin: Result & Stats

Fernández Vial

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lautaro de Buin

12/2/2020

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fernández Vial43%

×Draw28%

Lautaro de Buin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernández VialExpected goals in this matchLautaro de Buin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Fernández Vial

1.31

Lautaro de Buin

1.04

Fernández Vial creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 58 away

1.11

creates per match

1.09

1.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Fernández Vial

1.11

Lautaro de Buin

1.09

allows per match

Fernández Vial

1.00

Lautaro de Buin

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Lautaro de Buin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw

70%

Fernández Vial or Lautaro de Buin

72%

Draw or Lautaro de Buin

57%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

20%

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

73%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

38%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

14%

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

65%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

28%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

59%

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fernández Vial scores more

43%

level

28%

Lautaro de Buin scores more

30%

Fernández Vial at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff