Lautaro de Buin 1–0 Concón National: Result & Stats

Lautaro de Buin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Concón National

L. Silva 90'

5/19/2024

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lautaro de Buin40%

×Draw24%

Concón National36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchConcón National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.45

Lautaro de Buin

1.55

Concón National

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 31 away

1.63

creates per match

1.65

1.25

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.63

Concón National

1.65

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.25

Concón National

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Concón National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

64%

Lautaro de Buin or Concón National

76%

Draw or Concón National

60%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

20%

Concón National wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

79%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

46%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

20%

Concón National 1+ goals

77%

Concón National 2+ goals

42%

Concón National 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

53%

Concón National (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Concón National attack 1.65 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

40%

level

24%

Concón National scores more

36%

Lautaro de Buin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

C. A. Astroza Zambrano

56'

B. Soto← M. Flores

56'

G. Bustos← G. Mendiburo

56'

J. Silva← M. Sánchez

68'

L. Silva← Á. López

77'

M. Leiva← J. Castillo

77'

W. Gama← D. Vera

90+4'

I. Godoy← F. Lara

90+3'

B. Torres← R. Fuenzalida

90+3'

C. Leiton← F. Cubillos

90'

L. Silva

Lautaro

Concón

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Rivera

56'▲B. Soto←▼M. Flores

56'▲G. Bustos←▼G. Mendiburo

56'▲J. Silva←▼M. Sánchez

68'▲L. Silva←▼Á. López

90+4'▲I. Godoy←▼F. Lara

Lautaro de Buin substitutes

SotoBustosSilvaSilvaGodoyJerezParodi

Manager: J. Orellana

77'▲M. Leiva←▼J. Castillo

77'▲W. Gama←▼D. Vera

90+3'▲B. Torres←▼R. Fuenzalida

90+3'▲C. Leiton←▼F. Cubillos

Concón National substitutes

LeivaGamaTorresLeitonMartínezGuzmánNavia