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Concón National vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Concón National
Concón National
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
10/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25Estadio Atlético Municipal de Concón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Concón National43%
×Draw27%
Lautaro de Buin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concón National
1.39
Lautaro de Buin
1.14

Concón National creates 22% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 58 away

creates per match

Concón National
1.26
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

Concón National
1.19
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Concón National or draw
69%
Concón National or Lautaro de Buin
73%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
57%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+
20%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals
75%
Concón National 2+ goals
40%
Concón National 3+ goals
16%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
68%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
32%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)
58%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concón National scores more
43%
level
27%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
31%

Concón National at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concón National vs Lautaro de Buin

Concón National beat Lautaro de Buin 2-0 in Segunda División on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Atlético Municipal de Concón in Concón.