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Lautaro de Buin vs Colchagua — Segunda División 2020

Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colchagua
Colchagua
7/29/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lautaro de Buin46%
×Draw25%
Colchagua28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lautaro de Buin
1.54
Colchagua
1.15

Lautaro de Buin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.63
Colchagua
1.04

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.25
Colchagua
1.46

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par
Colchagua+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Colchagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw
72%
Lautaro de Buin or Colchagua
75%
Draw or Colchagua
54%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
23%
Colchagua wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
79%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
45%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
20%
Colchagua 1+ goals
68%
Colchagua 2+ goals
32%
Colchagua 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
62%
Colchagua (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Colchagua away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + Colchagua defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Colchagua attack 1.04 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more
46%
level
25%
Colchagua scores more
28%

Lautaro de Buin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Lautaro de Buin 1–0 Colchagua

Lautaro de Buin beat Colchagua 1-0 in Segunda División on July 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.