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Colchagua vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Colchagua
Colchagua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
9/25/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal Jorge Silva Valenzuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colchagua40%
×Draw27%
Lautaro de Buin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchagua
1.33
Lautaro de Buin
1.17

Colchagua creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 58 away

creates per match

Colchagua
1.14
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

Colchagua
1.25
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

Colchagua+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchagua ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchagua or draw
67%
Colchagua or Lautaro de Buin
73%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
60%

Winning margin

Colchagua wins by 2+
18%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Colchagua 1+ goals
74%
Colchagua 2+ goals
38%
Colchagua 3+ goals
15%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
69%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
33%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colchagua (draw refunded)
55%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchagua at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchagua attack 1.14 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Colchagua defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchagua scores more
40%
level
27%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
33%

Colchagua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colchagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchagua vs Lautaro de Buin

Colchagua beat Lautaro de Buin 2-0 in Segunda División on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jorge Silva Valenzuela in San Fernando.