Lausanne vs Dynamo Kyiv: Preview & Prediction

Lausanne

CANC

00:00

Dynamo Kyiv

7/8/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lausanne49%

×Draw22%

Dynamo Kyiv28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LausanneExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.40

Lausanne

1.90

Dynamo Kyiv

1.40

Lausanne creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.93

0.86

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Lausanne

2.00

Dynamo Kyiv

1.93

allows per match

Lausanne

0.86

Dynamo Kyiv

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw

72%

Lausanne or Dynamo Kyiv

78%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

51%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+

28%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals

85%

Lausanne 2+ goals

56%

Lausanne 3+ goals

29%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

75%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

41%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)

63%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.93 + Lausanne defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lausanne scores more

49%

level

22%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

28%

Lausanne at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lausanne face Dynamo Kyiv (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Lausanne hosting Dynamo Kyiv. Match starts July 8, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lausanne host Dynamo Kyiv at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Lausanne vs Dynamo Kyiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Lausanne face Dynamo Kyiv (Friendlies Clubs)