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Lausanne vs Dynamo Kyiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
1 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lausanne44%
×Draw22%
Dynamo Kyiv34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.91
Dynamo Kyiv
1.64

Lausanne creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lausanne
2.00
Dynamo Kyiv
2.36

allows per match

Lausanne
0.92
Dynamo Kyiv
1.82

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
66%
Lausanne or Dynamo Kyiv
78%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
56%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
24%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
85%
Lausanne 2+ goals
57%
Lausanne 3+ goals
30%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
57%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.36 + Lausanne defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lausanne scores more
44%
level
22%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
34%

Lausanne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne vs Dynamo Kyiv

Lausanne and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.