Latvia 1–1 Faroe Islands: Result & Stats

Latvia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Faroe Islands

Vladimirs Kamess 59'

Gunnar Vatnhamar 60'

11/14/2020

UEFA Nations League · League D - 5Daugava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia44%

×Draw30%

Faroe Islands26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LatviaExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.82

Latvia

1.18

Faroe Islands

0.82

Latvia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Latvia

1.00

Faroe Islands

0.64

allows per match

Latvia

1.00

Faroe Islands

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia+0.00on par

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia ↓

Faroe Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Latvia or draw

74%

Latvia or Faroe Islands

70%

Draw or Faroe Islands

56%

Winning margin

Latvia wins by 2+

19%

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Latvia 1+ goals

69%

Latvia 2+ goals

33%

Latvia 3+ goals

12%

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

56%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

20%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Latvia (draw refunded)

63%

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia attack 1.00 + Faroe Islands defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Faroe Islands attack 0.64 + Latvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Latvia scores more

44%

level

30%

Faroe Islands scores more

26%

Latvia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Latvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Vladislavs Gutkovskis

Latvia · F

8.2

Match Events

58'

Sonni Nattestad

59'

Vladimirs Kamess↳ Vladislavs Gutkovskis

60'

Gunnar Vatnhamar↳ Viljormur Davidsen

61'

Aleksejs Saveljevs← Ritvars Rugins

62'

Daniels Ontužāns← Vladimirs Kamess

68'

Ari Mohr Jonsson← Rogvi Baldvinsson

71'

Mārtiņš Ķigurs← Andrejs Cigaņiks

77'

Mārtiņš Ķigurs

83'

Hilmar Jakobsen← Meinhard Olsen

88'

Daniels Ontužāns

90'

Alvis Jaunzems← Jānis Ikaunieks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LatviaFaroe

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots12

4Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked5

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

414Total Passes312

293Accurate Passes187

71%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0