Faroe Islands 1–1 Latvia: Result & Stats

Faroe Islands

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Latvia

H. Sørensen 40'

D. Šits 69'

10/13/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Faroe Islands35%

×Draw26%

Latvia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Faroe IslandsExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.36

Faroe Islands

1.27

Latvia

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.55

creates per match

1.45

1.27

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Faroe Islands

1.55

Latvia

1.45

allows per match

Faroe Islands

1.27

Latvia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Faroe Islands or draw

61%

Faroe Islands or Latvia

74%

Draw or Latvia

65%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

15%

Latvia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

72%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

36%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

14%

Latvia 1+ goals

74%

Latvia 2+ goals

39%

Latvia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

47%

Latvia (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands attack 1.55 + Latvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Latvia attack 1.45 + Faroe Islands defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Faroe Islands scores more

35%

level

26%

Latvia scores more

39%

Latvia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Latvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

H. Sørensen

Faroe Islands · M

7.7

Match Events

39'

Viljormur Davidsen

40'

H. Sørensen↳ B. Hendriksson

46'

A. Černomordijs← R. Savaļnieks

49'

Jānis Ikaunieks

57'

J. Bjartalíð← R. Joensen

58'

A. Justinussen← H. Agnarsson

58'

S. Vatnhamar← B. Hendriksson

62'

Jóannes Bjartalíð

66'

L. Vapne← A. Saveļjevs

66'

D. Šits← J. Ikaunieks

69'

D. Šits↳ A. Cigaņiks

78'

S. Nattestad← O. Færø

83'

J. Edmundsson← M. Olsen

90+1'

D. Meļņiks← R. Varslavāns

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FaroeLatvia

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots11

5Corners1

11Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target4

7Off Target5

2Blocked2

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

585Total Passes362

503Accurate Passes282

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1