Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Latvia U19 vs Estonia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Latvia U19
Latvia U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estonia U19
Estonia U19
O. Dzenitis 89', 55' (pen)
R. Buss 82'
M. Kasemaa 90'
M. Kukkonen 45'
6/8/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalJana Skredela stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Latvia U1965%
×Draw20%
Estonia U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latvia U19
2.10
Estonia U19
0.90

Latvia U19 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Latvia U19
2.40
Estonia U19
1.20

allows per match

Latvia U19
0.60
Estonia U19
1.80

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par
Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw
85%
Latvia U19 or Estonia U19
80%
Draw or Estonia U19
35%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+
41%
Estonia U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals
88%
Latvia U19 2+ goals
62%
Latvia U19 3+ goals
35%
Estonia U19 1+ goals
59%
Estonia U19 2+ goals
23%
Estonia U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Estonia U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 2.40 + Estonia U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Estonia U19 attack 1.20 + Latvia U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Latvia U19 scores more
65%
level
20%
Estonia U19 scores more
15%

Latvia U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Kukkonen
55'
O. DzenitisPenalty
82'
R. Buss
89'
O. Dzenitis
90'
M. Kasemaa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Latvia U19 3–2 Estonia U19

Latvia U19 beat Estonia U19 3-2 in Friendlies on June 8, 2026.

Goals: M. Kukkonen (45'), O. Dzenitis (55' pen, 89'), R. Buss (82'), M. Kasemaa (90').

The match was played at Jana Skredela stadions in Riga.