Estonia U19 6–2 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

Estonia U19

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Latvia U19

J. Poder 86'

B. Vain 72'

T. Pajo 59'

H. Kablik 46'

H. Pedmanson 39'

O. Hoim 34'

H. Silagailis 79' (pen)

A. Petrovs 16'

6/16/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estonia U1975%

×Draw13%

Latvia U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.29

Estonia U19

3.33

Latvia U19

1.29

Estonia U19 creates 158% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.67

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Estonia U19

3.67

Latvia U19

1.25

allows per match

Estonia U19

1.33

Latvia U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw

88%

Estonia U19 or Latvia U19

87%

Draw or Latvia U19

25%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

57%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals

96%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

84%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

63%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

72%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

37%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 3.67 + Latvia U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.33

Latvia U19 attack 1.25 + Estonia U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Estonia U19 scores more

75%

level

13%

Latvia U19 scores more

12%

Estonia U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Estonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

M. Lormanis

16'

A. Petrovs

21'

T. Pajo

34'

O. Hoim

39'

H. Pedmanson

46'

I. Patrikejevs← I. Patrikejevs

46'

R. Gaucis← R. Gaucis

46'

K. Cesnieks← K. Cesnieks

46'

H. Silagailis← H. Silagailis

46'

←

46'

L. Liepins← L. Liepins

46'

H. Kablik

59'

T. Pajo

61'

S. Kerge← S. Kerge

61'

K. Kriis← K. Kriis

63'

E. Zuravljov

67'

B. Vain← B. Vain

67'

A. Alteberg← A. Alteberg

72'

B. Vain

74'

H. Silagailis

76'

O. Pihela← O. Pihela

76'

I. Kartau← I. Kartau

76'

J. Poder← J. Poder

76'

A. Volossatov← A. Volossatov

77'

E. Zuravljov

77'

E. Zuravljov

79'

H. SilagailisPenalty

80'

K. Grabovskis← K. Grabovskis

86'

J. Poder

89'

E. Maurs-Boks

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff