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Latvia U17 vs Lithuania U17 — Friendlies 2018

Latvia U17
Latvia U17
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lithuania U17
Lithuania U17
E. Gross 89'
Z. Maligins 73'
L. Mballa 55'
D. Slusarevs 52'
M. Mogilevics 45'
G. Valatkevicius 57'
6/28/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Latvia U1749%
×Draw21%
Lithuania U1730%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latvia U17
2.10
Lithuania U17
1.60

Latvia U17 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Latvia U17
2.00
Lithuania U17
1.80

allows per match

Latvia U17
1.40
Lithuania U17
2.20

finishing

Latvia U17+0.00on par
Lithuania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U17 ↓

Lithuania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Latvia U17 or draw
70%
Latvia U17 or Lithuania U17
79%
Draw or Lithuania U17
51%

Winning margin

Latvia U17 wins by 2+
29%
Lithuania U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Latvia U17 1+ goals
88%
Latvia U17 2+ goals
62%
Latvia U17 3+ goals
35%
Lithuania U17 1+ goals
80%
Lithuania U17 2+ goals
47%
Lithuania U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)
62%
Lithuania U17 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lithuania U17 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U17 attack 2.00 + Lithuania U17 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Lithuania U17 attack 1.80 + Latvia U17 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Latvia U17 scores more
49%
level
21%
Lithuania U17 scores more
30%

Latvia U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Latvia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Mogilevics
52'
D. Slusarevs
55'
L. Mballa
57'
G. Valatkevicius
73'
Z. Maligins
89'
E. Gross
Latvia
Lithuania
A. Gluščuks
Manager: A. Gluščuks
A. Velička
Manager: A. Velička

Match Recap: Latvia U17 vs Lithuania U17

Latvia U17 beat Lithuania U17 5-1 in Friendlies on June 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Mogilevics (45'), D. Slusarevs (52'), L. Mballa (55'), G. Valatkevicius (57'), Z. Maligins (73'), E. Gross (89').