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Latvia U17 vs Lithuania U17 — Friendlies 2018

Latvia U17
Latvia U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lithuania U17
Lithuania U17
N. Garbaliauskas 40', 15'
7/2/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Latvia U1740%
×Draw23%
Lithuania U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latvia U17
1.75
Lithuania U17
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Latvia U17
1.67
Lithuania U17
1.83

allows per match

Latvia U17
1.50
Lithuania U17
1.83

finishing

Latvia U17+0.00on par
Lithuania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U17 ↓

Lithuania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Latvia U17 or draw
63%
Latvia U17 or Lithuania U17
77%
Draw or Lithuania U17
60%

Winning margin

Latvia U17 wins by 2+
21%
Lithuania U17 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Latvia U17 1+ goals
83%
Latvia U17 2+ goals
52%
Latvia U17 3+ goals
25%
Lithuania U17 1+ goals
81%
Lithuania U17 2+ goals
50%
Lithuania U17 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)
52%
Lithuania U17 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Lithuania U17 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U17 attack 1.67 + Lithuania U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lithuania U17 attack 1.83 + Latvia U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Latvia U17 scores more
40%
level
23%
Lithuania U17 scores more
37%

Latvia U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Latvia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
N. Garbaliauskas
40'
N. Garbaliauskas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Latvia U17 0–2 Lithuania U17

Lithuania U17 beat Latvia U17 2-0 in Friendlies on July 2, 2023.

Goals: N. Garbaliauskas (15', 40').