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Lask Linz vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
2/24/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 19Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lask Linz54%
×Draw24%
Austria Lustenau22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.73
Austria Lustenau
1.02

Lask Linz creates 70% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.82
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.14
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
78%
Lask Linz or Austria Lustenau
76%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
46%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
30%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
82%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
52%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
25%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
64%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
27%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
71%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.82 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + Lask Linz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lask Linz scores more
54%
level
24%
Austria Lustenau scores more
22%

Lask Linz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lask Linz vs Austria Lustenau

Lask Linz beat Austria Lustenau 1-0 in Bundesliga on February 24, 2023.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.