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Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
9/11/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 8Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau28%
×Draw24%
Lask Linz48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.26
Lask Linz
1.73

Lask Linz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 130 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
Lask Linz
1.52

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
Lask Linz
1.22

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
52%
Austria Lustenau or Lask Linz
76%
Draw or Lask Linz
72%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
12%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
72%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
36%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
13%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
82%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
52%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
37%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
28%
level
24%
Lask Linz scores more
48%

Lask Linz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Austria Lustenau 1–1 Lask Linz

Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Planet Pure Stadion in Lustenau.