Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
T. Goiginger 88'
S. Horvath 63'
M. Karamoko 47'
R. Kerschbaum 33' (pen)
9/26/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 9Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lask Linz53%
×Draw23%
Admira Wacker24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.82
Admira Wacker
1.14

Lask Linz creates 60% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 62 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.85
Admira Wacker
1.11

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.17
Admira Wacker
1.79

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Admira Wacker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
76%
Lask Linz or Admira Wacker
77%
Draw or Admira Wacker
47%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
30%
Admira Wacker wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
84%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
54%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
27%
Admira Wacker 1+ goals
68%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
32%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
69%
Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.17 · 126 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.85 + Admira Wacker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.82

Admira Wacker attack 1.11 + Lask Linz defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lask Linz scores more
53%
level
23%
Admira Wacker scores more
24%

Lask Linz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
T. GoigingerLask LinzLask Linz · F
8.5

Match Events

33'
R. KerschbaumPenalty
35'
Thomas Ebner
46'
Y. Letard← P. Filipović
46'
P. Schmiedl← S. Zwierschitz
47'
M. Karamoko↳ T. Goiginger
51'
A. Schmidt← M. Karamoko
60'
Felix Luckeneder
63'
S. Horvath
68'
D. Starkl← J. Ganda
68'
M. Ostrzolek← L. Lukačević
68'
I. Elmkies← L. Malicsek
72'
F. Flecker← R. Renner
72'
H. Balić← S. Horvath
75'
Alexander Schmidt
80'
M. Hausjell← L. Kronberger
82'
L. Grgic← F. Luckeneder
85'
Marvin Potzmann
88'
T. Goiginger

Possession

51%Lask

Shots

10Lask

Pass accuracy

50%Lask

Statistics

LaskAdmira
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots15
3Corners3
20Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots15
6On Target5
3Off Target3
1Blocked7
6Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
369Total Passes344
231Accurate Passes220
63%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Bundesliga: Lask Linz 3–1 Admira Wacker

Lask Linz beat Admira Wacker 3-1 in Bundesliga on September 26, 2021.

Goals: R. Kerschbaum (33' pen), M. Karamoko (47'), S. Horvath (63'), T. Goiginger (88').

Lask Linz controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Pasching.