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Admira Wacker vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
L. Kronberger 90'
T. Goiginger 86'
A. Gruber 9'
2/21/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 18BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Admira Wacker28%
×Draw25%
Lask Linz47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Wacker
1.14
Lask Linz
1.55

Lask Linz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 125 away

creates per match

Admira Wacker
1.05
Lask Linz
1.51

allows per match

Admira Wacker
1.59
Lask Linz
1.23

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par
Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw
53%
Admira Wacker or Lask Linz
75%
Draw or Lask Linz
72%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+
11%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals
68%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
32%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
11%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
79%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
46%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
37%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.05 + Lask Linz defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Lask Linz attack 1.51 + Admira Wacker defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Admira Wacker scores more
28%
level
25%
Lask Linz scores more
47%

Lask Linz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
G. TraunerLask LinzLask Linz · D
8.2

Match Events

9'
A. Gruber↳ A. Andrade
14'
H. Balić← A. Gruber
31'
Gernot Trauner
41'
Philipp Wiesinger
45'
David Atanga
55'
Peter Michorl
59'
M. Sax← D. Starkl
60'
Andrés Andrade
61'
R. Renner← M. Potzmann
78'
L. Kronberger← E. Aiwu
86'
T. Goiginger↳ G. Trauner
87'
Andreas Leitner
88'
Stephan Auer
88'
M. Breunig← S. Auer
90'
P. Plojer← J. Eggestein
90'
L. Grgic← P. Michorl
90'
L. Kronberger↳ D. Atanga

Possession

41%Admira

Shots

8Admira

Pass accuracy

46%Admira

Statistics

AdmiraLask
Overview
41%Possession59%
8Total Shots17
1Corners6
23Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots17
5On Target4
3Off Target7
0Blocked6
8Inside Box10
0Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
376Total Passes518
226Accurate Passes368
60%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
23Fouls17
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides4

Bundesliga: Admira Wacker 1–2 Lask Linz

Lask Linz beat Admira Wacker 2-1 in Bundesliga on February 21, 2021.

Goals: A. Gruber (9'), T. Goiginger (86'), L. Kronberger (90').

Lask Linz controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at BSFZ-Arena in Maria Enzersdorf.