LASK Juniors 1–0 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

LASK Juniors

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bad Gleichenberg

11/3/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LASK Juniors55%

×Draw21%

Bad Gleichenberg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LASK JuniorsExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.38

LASK Juniors

2.17

Bad Gleichenberg

1.38

LASK Juniors creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

2.30

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

LASK Juniors

2.30

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

LASK Juniors

1.00

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw

76%

LASK Juniors or Bad Gleichenberg

79%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

45%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+

33%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals

89%

LASK Juniors 2+ goals

64%

LASK Juniors 3+ goals

36%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

75%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

40%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)

70%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.17

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

LASK Juniors scores more

55%

level

21%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

24%

LASK Juniors at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff