Bad Gleichenberg 3–7 LASK Juniors: Result & Stats

Bad Gleichenberg

FT

3 – 7

HT: 1 – 4

LASK Juniors

6/9/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 30Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg42%

×Draw21%

LASK Juniors37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad GleichenbergExpected goals in this matchLASK Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.88

Bad Gleichenberg

2.00

LASK Juniors

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

2.39

creates per match

2.13

1.62

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg

2.39

LASK Juniors

2.13

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg

1.62

LASK Juniors

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

LASK Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw

63%

Bad Gleichenberg or LASK Juniors

79%

Draw or LASK Juniors

58%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

23%

LASK Juniors wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

86%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

59%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

32%

LASK Juniors 1+ goals

85%

LASK Juniors 2+ goals

56%

LASK Juniors 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

53%

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

LASK Juniors away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + LASK Juniors defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

LASK Juniors attack 2.13 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

42%

level

21%

LASK Juniors scores more

37%

Bad Gleichenberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff