Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LASK Juniors vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

LASK Juniors
LASK Juniors
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
8/18/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

LASK Juniors55%
×Draw22%
ASK Klagenfurt24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LASK Juniors
2.01
ASK Klagenfurt
1.26

LASK Juniors creates 60% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 25 away

creates per match

LASK Juniors
2.30
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

LASK Juniors
1.00
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw
76%
LASK Juniors or ASK Klagenfurt
78%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
45%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+
32%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals
87%
LASK Juniors 2+ goals
59%
LASK Juniors 3+ goals
32%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
72%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
36%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)
70%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.01

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

LASK Juniors scores more
55%
level
22%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
24%

LASK Juniors at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: LASK Juniors 1–3 ASK Klagenfurt

ASK Klagenfurt beat LASK Juniors 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at voestalpine Stadion in Pasching.