ASK Klagenfurt 2–2 LASK Juniors: Result & Stats

ASK Klagenfurt

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

LASK Juniors

5/23/2025

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 28Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt37%

×Draw22%

LASK Juniors41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchLASK Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.85

ASK Klagenfurt

1.77

LASK Juniors

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 60 away

1.95

creates per match

2.13

1.57

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt

1.95

LASK Juniors

2.13

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt

1.57

LASK Juniors

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

LASK Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw

59%

ASK Klagenfurt or LASK Juniors

78%

Draw or LASK Juniors

63%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

19%

LASK Juniors wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

83%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

53%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

26%

LASK Juniors 1+ goals

84%

LASK Juniors 2+ goals

55%

LASK Juniors 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

48%

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

LASK Juniors away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + LASK Juniors defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

LASK Juniors attack 2.13 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

37%

level

22%

LASK Juniors scores more

41%

LASK Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff