Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Las Vegas Lights vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
8/25/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 30Cashman Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Las Vegas Lights42%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Vegas Lights
1.50
Indy Eleven
1.31

Las Vegas Lights creates 15% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.42
Indy Eleven
1.10

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.51
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw
67%
Las Vegas Lights or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
58%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
20%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
78%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
44%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
19%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
73%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
38%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
56%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more
42%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
33%

Las Vegas Lights at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Las Vegas Lights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Las Vegas Lights 3–2 Indy Eleven

Las Vegas Lights beat Indy Eleven 3-2 in USL Championship on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Cashman Field in Las Vegas, Nevada.