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Indy Eleven vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
6/21/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Indy Eleven54%
×Draw23%
Las Vegas Lights23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.80
Las Vegas Lights
1.10

Indy Eleven creates 64% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 132 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Las Vegas Lights
1.08

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
77%
Indy Eleven or Las Vegas Lights
77%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
46%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
30%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
83%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
54%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
27%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
67%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
30%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
70%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.08 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
54%
level
23%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
23%

Indy Eleven at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indy Eleven vs Las Vegas Lights

Las Vegas Lights beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.