Las Vegas Lights 2–2 Fresno FC: Result & Stats

Las Vegas Lights

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fresno FC

8/26/2018

USL Championship · Round 43Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Las Vegas Lights39%

×Draw26%

Fresno FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Vegas LightsExpected goals in this matchFresno FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.33

Las Vegas Lights

1.39

Fresno FC

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 34 away

1.42

creates per match

1.15

1.51

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights

1.42

Fresno FC

1.15

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights

1.51

Fresno FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Fresno FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw

64%

Las Vegas Lights or Fresno FC

74%

Draw or Fresno FC

61%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+

18%

Fresno FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals

75%

Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals

40%

Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals

16%

Fresno FC 1+ goals

74%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

38%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)

52%

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more

39%

level

26%

Fresno FC scores more

36%

Las Vegas Lights at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Las Vegas Lights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff