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Fresno FC vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2018

Fresno FC
Fresno FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
3/18/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC58%
×Draw22%
Las Vegas Lights21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fresno FC
1.98
Las Vegas Lights
1.10

Fresno FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 133 away

creates per match

Fresno FC
1.86
Las Vegas Lights
1.09

allows per match

Fresno FC
1.11
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw
79%
Fresno FC or Las Vegas Lights
78%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
42%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+
34%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals
86%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
59%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
31%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
67%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
30%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)
74%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.98

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.09 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fresno FC scores more
58%
level
22%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
21%

Fresno FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fresno FC vs Las Vegas Lights

Las Vegas Lights beat Fresno FC 3-2 in USL Championship on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).