Las Rozas 3–0 Internacional de Madrid

Las Rozas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Álvaro Portero 90+4'

Albur 70'

Jaime Turégano 40'

2/9/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Las Rozas48%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Madrid24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.88

Las Rozas

1.35

Internacional de Madrid

0.88

Las Rozas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

1.29

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.29

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.00

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

76%

Las Rozas or Internacional de Madrid

72%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

52%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

23%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

74%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

39%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

15%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

59%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

22%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.29 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Las Rozas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Las Rozas scores more

48%

level

28%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

24%

Las Rozas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Gonzalo Expósito← Nogueira

36'

A. Nouaman

40'

Jaime Turégano

59'

Jaime Siaj← Chevi

64'

Albur← B. Reyna

70'

Albur

74'

P. Aythami

77'

F. Ramos

79'

Jesús Moyano← Alvar Herrero

79'

Sergio Valero← Rubén Ramos

82'

David Barca← Jesús Cruz

90+4'

Álvaro Portero

Las

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Lolo Escobar

21'▲Gonzalo Expósito←▼Nogueira

64'▲Albur←▼B. Reyna

82'▲David Barca←▼Jesús Cruz

Las Rozas substitutes

ExpósitoAlburBarcaCallejaCedenillaRiveraAndrés

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

59'▲Jaime Siaj←▼Chevi

79'▲Jesús Moyano←▼Alvar Herrero

79'▲Sergio Valero←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SiajMoyanoValeroManceNúñezGuzmánGallardo

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Las Rozas 3–0 Internacional de Madrid

Las Rozas beat Internacional de Madrid 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 9, 2020.

Goals: Jaime Turégano (40'), Albur (70'), Álvaro Portero (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.

Las Rozas vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Las Rozas 3–0 Internacional de Madrid