Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Las Rozas

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Las Rozas

Jesús Moyano 90+1'

11/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid49%

×Draw31%

Las Rozas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.65

Internacional de Madrid

1.20

Las Rozas

0.65

Internacional de Madrid creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

0.46

0.83

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Las Rozas

0.46

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Las Rozas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Las Rozas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

80%

Internacional de Madrid or Las Rozas

69%

Draw or Las Rozas

51%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

22%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

70%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

34%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

12%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

48%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

14%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

71%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Las Rozas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Las Rozas attack 0.46 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

49%

level

31%

Las Rozas scores more

20%

Internacional de Madrid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Víctor Villacañas← Reguera

58'

Albur← M. Talal

63'

Fran Cortés← Adrián Mance

67'

Álvaro Portero← Adri Carrasco

73'

Sergio Arribas← Adrià de Mesa

80'

A. Rashiti← Gonzalo Poley

80'

David Rabadán← Arthur

89'

Dani Provencio← Carlos Algarra

90+1'

Jesús Moyano

Internacional

Las

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

46'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Reguera

63'▲Fran Cortés←▼Adrián Mance

73'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Adrià de Mesa

80'▲A. Rashiti←▼Gonzalo Poley

80'▲David Rabadán←▼Arthur

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

VillacañasCortésArribasRashitiRabadánFrancoGarranchoMarcosLechuga

Manager: Iván Helguera

58'▲Albur←▼M. Talal

67'▲Álvaro Portero←▼Adri Carrasco

89'▲Dani Provencio←▼Carlos Algarra

Las Rozas substitutes

AlburPorteroProvencioIndianoChechuBarcaSáezYelcoRafita

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Las Rozas

Internacional de Madrid beat Las Rozas 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 8, 2020.

Goals: Jesús Moyano (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Las Rozas