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Las Rozas vs Aravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aravaca
Aravaca
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Las Rozas54%
×Draw24%
Aravaca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.66
Aravaca
0.94

Las Rozas creates 77% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Aravaca
0.76

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Aravaca
1.53

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Aravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
79%
Las Rozas or Aravaca
76%
Draw or Aravaca
46%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
29%
Aravaca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
81%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
49%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
23%
Aravaca 1+ goals
61%
Aravaca 2+ goals
24%
Aravaca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
72%
Aravaca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Aravaca attack 0.76 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Las Rozas scores more
54%
level
24%
Aravaca scores more
21%

Las Rozas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 3–1 Aravaca

Las Rozas beat Aravaca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.