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Aravaca vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Aravaca
Aravaca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca39%
×Draw25%
Las Rozas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aravaca
1.43
Las Rozas
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

creates per match

Aravaca
1.71
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Aravaca
1.53
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw
64%
Aravaca or Las Rozas
75%
Draw or Las Rozas
61%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+
18%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals
76%
Aravaca 2+ goals
42%
Aravaca 3+ goals
17%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
75%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
40%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)
52%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aravaca scores more
39%
level
25%
Las Rozas scores more
36%

Aravaca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Aravaca 1–0 Las Rozas

Aravaca beat Las Rozas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Sanfíz in Madrid.