Las Rozas 3–5 A Madrid III: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

3 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

A Madrid III

4/19/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Las Rozas35%

×Draw22%

A Madrid III43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchA Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.92

Las Rozas

1.71

A Madrid III

1.92

A Madrid III creates 12% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

2.71

1.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

A Madrid III

2.71

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

A Madrid III

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

A Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

A Madrid III →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

57%

Las Rozas or A Madrid III

78%

Draw or A Madrid III

65%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

17%

A Madrid III wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

82%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

51%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

24%

A Madrid III 1+ goals

85%

A Madrid III 2+ goals

57%

A Madrid III 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

45%

A Madrid III (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

A Madrid III away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + A Madrid III defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

A Madrid III attack 2.71 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Las Rozas scores more

35%

level

22%

A Madrid III scores more

43%

A Madrid III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "A Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff