A Madrid III 1–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

A Madrid III

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Las Rozas

12/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

A Madrid III49%

×Draw24%

Las Rozas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A Madrid IIIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.15

A Madrid III

1.67

Las Rozas

1.15

A Madrid III creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

2.18

creates per match

1.23

1.06

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

A Madrid III

2.18

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

A Madrid III

1.06

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

A Madrid III+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A Madrid III ↓

Las Rozas →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

A Madrid III or draw

74%

A Madrid III or Las Rozas

76%

Draw or Las Rozas

51%

Winning margin

A Madrid III wins by 2+

26%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

A Madrid III 1+ goals

81%

A Madrid III 2+ goals

50%

A Madrid III 3+ goals

23%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

68%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

32%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

A Madrid III (draw refunded)

65%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

A Madrid III at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

A Madrid III attack 2.18 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + A Madrid III defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

A Madrid III scores more

49%

level

24%

Las Rozas scores more

26%

A Madrid III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "A Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff