Las Palmas 1–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Rubén Castro 85' (pen)

7/11/2020

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Las Palmas49%

×Draw26%

Mirandes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.95

Las Palmas

1.48

Mirandes

0.95

Las Palmas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 149 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

0.89

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

76%

Las Palmas or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

51%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

25%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

77%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

43%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

19%

Mirandes 1+ goals

61%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

67%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Las Palmas scores more

49%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

24%

Las Palmas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Raúl Lizoáin

Mirandes · G

7.5

Match Events

36'

M. Mantovani

60'

Joaquín Muñoz← Iñigo Vicente

66'

J. Narváez← Cristian Cedrés

66'

Benito Ramírez← Pedri

69'

Maranhão← Jon Guridi

70'

A. González← C. Martínez

71'

Kirian

73'

A. Lemos

77'

Éric Curbelo← Álvaro Lemos

77'

Aridai Cabrera← Dani Castellano

80'

A. Gonzalez

81'

Ruiz de Galarreta← F. Varela

84'

D. E. Franquesa

85'

M. Aias

85'

Rubén CastroPenalty

86'

Álvaro Peña← Enric Franquesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LasMirandes

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots7

3Corners7

12Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target0

3Off Target6

4Blocked1

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

495Total Passes406

391Accurate Passes308

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1