Las Palmas 3–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Albacete

5/24/2021

Segunda División · Round 41Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Las Palmas47%

×Draw27%

Albacete26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.96

Las Palmas

1.40

Albacete

0.96

Las Palmas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 149 away

1.47

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Albacete

1.03

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Albacete

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

74%

Las Palmas or Albacete

73%

Draw or Albacete

53%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

23%

Albacete wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

75%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

41%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

17%

Albacete 1+ goals

62%

Albacete 2+ goals

25%

Albacete 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

65%

Albacete (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Albacete attack 1.03 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Las Palmas scores more

47%

level

27%

Albacete scores more

26%

Las Palmas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff