Albacete 2–1 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Las Palmas

3/16/2026

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Albacete42%

×Draw28%

Las Palmas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Albacete

1.25

Las Palmas

1.02

Albacete creates 23% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 128 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

1.09

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Albacete

1.27

Las Palmas

0.94

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Las Palmas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

70%

Albacete or Las Palmas

72%

Draw or Las Palmas

58%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

18%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

71%

Albacete 2+ goals

36%

Albacete 3+ goals

13%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

64%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

27%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

58%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 149 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.27 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albacete scores more

42%

level

28%

Las Palmas scores more

30%

Albacete at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff