Las Palmas III 3–0 Ibarra: Result & Stats

Las Palmas III

3 – 0

Ibarra

Dylan Hernández 84'

8/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Palmas III60%

×Draw22%

Ibarra18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIIExpected goals in this matchIbarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.93

Las Palmas III

1.91

Ibarra

0.93

Las Palmas III creates 105% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 77 away

1.83

creates per match

0.88

0.98

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Las Palmas III

1.83

Ibarra

0.88

allows per match

Las Palmas III

0.98

Ibarra

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Ibarra →

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw

82%

Las Palmas III or Ibarra

78%

Draw or Ibarra

40%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+

36%

Ibarra wins by 2+

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals

85%

Las Palmas III 2+ goals

57%

Las Palmas III 3+ goals

30%

Ibarra 1+ goals

61%

Ibarra 2+ goals

24%

Ibarra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)

77%

Ibarra (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Las Palmas III scores more

60%

level

22%

Ibarra scores more

18%

Las Palmas III at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Kawi← Mendy

58'

Alexis Ramos← Jonathan Sesma

69'

Dito← Isidro López

69'

Josémi Valencia← Suso

73'

Diego Hernández← Pipo

84'

Dylan Hernández

86'

Oliver← Dani Carballo

Las

Ibarra

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Yoni Oujo

69'▲Dito←▼Isidro López

69'▲Josémi Valencia←▼Suso

73'▲Diego Hernández←▼Pipo

Las Palmas III substitutes

DitoValenciaHernández

Manager: Míchel Brito

56'▲Kawi←▼Mendy

58'▲Alexis Ramos←▼Jonathan Sesma

86'▲Oliver←▼Dani Carballo

Ibarra substitutes

KawiRamosOliver

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Ibarra

Las Palmas III beat Ibarra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on August 24, 2019.

Goals: Dylan Hernández (84').

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Las Palmas III vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Ibarra