Ibarra 2–1 Las Palmas III: Result & Stats

Ibarra

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Las Palmas III

Balduino 76'

Alexis Ramos 21'

Pipo 65'

1/11/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 20Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ibarra40%

×Draw28%

Las Palmas III32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarraExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.09

Ibarra

1.25

Las Palmas III

1.09

Ibarra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

1.18

creates per match

1.05

1.14

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ibarra

1.18

Las Palmas III

1.05

allows per match

Ibarra

1.14

Las Palmas III

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par

Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Las Palmas III →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw

68%

Ibarra or Las Palmas III

72%

Draw or Las Palmas III

60%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+

18%

Las Palmas III wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals

71%

Ibarra 2+ goals

36%

Ibarra 3+ goals

13%

Las Palmas III 1+ goals

66%

Las Palmas III 2+ goals

30%

Las Palmas III 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)

55%

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ibarra scores more

40%

level

28%

Las Palmas III scores more

32%

Ibarra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Alexis Ramos

46'

Adonay← Darvi

57'

Jurgen← Aday

65'

Pipo

76'

Sebastián Bentos← Luis García

76'

Balduino

84'

Eleder Marrero← Diego Hernández

85'

Sergio Tonini← Balduino

90+1'

Oliver← Alexis Ramos

Ibarra

Las

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Balduino

Manager: Míchel Brito

46'▲Adonay←▼Darvi

85'▲Sergio Tonini←▼Balduino

90+1'▲Oliver←▼Alexis Ramos

Ibarra substitutes

AdonayToniniOliver

Manager: Yoni Oujo

57'▲Jurgen←▼Aday

76'▲Sebastián Bentos←▼Luis García

84'▲Eleder Marrero←▼Diego Hernández

Las Palmas III substitutes

JurgenBentosMarrero

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 2–1 Las Palmas III

Ibarra beat Las Palmas III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 11, 2020.

Goals: Alexis Ramos (21'), Pipo (65'), Balduino (76').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.

Ibarra vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 2–1 Las Palmas III