Las Palmas III 4–1 Guía: Result & Stats

Las Palmas III

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Guía

Joaquín 66'

Carlos Galván 52' (pen)

Pipo 38'

Isaac 23'

J. Flores 78'

3/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Las Palmas III59%

×Draw22%

Guía19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIIExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.02

Las Palmas III

1.95

Guía

1.02

Las Palmas III creates 91% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.07

0.98

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Las Palmas III

1.83

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Las Palmas III

0.98

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Guía →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw

81%

Las Palmas III or Guía

78%

Draw or Guía

41%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+

35%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals

86%

Las Palmas III 2+ goals

58%

Las Palmas III 3+ goals

31%

Guía 1+ goals

64%

Guía 2+ goals

27%

Guía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)

75%

Guía (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.95

Guía attack 1.07 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Las Palmas III scores more

59%

level

22%

Guía scores more

19%

Las Palmas III at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

38'

46'

46'

46'

Omar Díaz← Alexander Martel

52'

Carlos GalvánPenalty

61'

J. Flores← Jesús Farías

61'

Rubén Mendoza← Kilian

66'

67'

67'

70'

72'

72'

Echedey← Isaac

78'

J. Flores

Las

Guía

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Joaquín

⚽

Pipo

Idafe

⚽

▼

Galván

Manager: Yoni Oujo

67'▲Isi López←▼Edián

67'▲Ibra Bayo←▼Joaquín

70'▲Yadam←▼Ian Bolaños

72'▲Samu←▼Carlos Galván

72'▲Echedey←▼Isaac

Las Palmas III substitutes

LópezBayoYadamSamuEchedey

46'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

46'▲David Flaco←▼Rivero

46'▲Omar Díaz←▼Alexander Martel

61'▲J. Flores←▼Jesús Farías

61'▲Rubén Mendoza←▼Kilian

Guía substitutes

MeloFlacoDíazFloresMendoza

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Guía

Las Palmas III beat Guía 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 13, 2021.

Goals: Isaac (23'), Pipo (38'), Carlos Galván (52' pen), Joaquín (66'), J. Flores (78').

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Las Palmas III vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Guía