Guía 0–1 Las Palmas III: Result & Stats

Guía

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Las Palmas III

Pipo 85'

12/13/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía42%

×Draw27%

Las Palmas III32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Guía

1.38

Las Palmas III

1.17

Guía creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 59 away

1.43

creates per match

1.05

1.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Las Palmas III

1.05

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Las Palmas III

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Las Palmas III →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guía or draw

68%

Guía or Las Palmas III

73%

Draw or Las Palmas III

58%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

19%

Las Palmas III wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

75%

Guía 2+ goals

40%

Guía 3+ goals

16%

Las Palmas III 1+ goals

69%

Las Palmas III 2+ goals

33%

Las Palmas III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

57%

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guía scores more

42%

level

27%

Las Palmas III scores more

32%

Guía at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Maceo← Cristian

64'

Ubay← Kilian

65'

Idafe← Pol

77'

Josémi Valencia← Samu

78'

Melo← Javi Mejías

78'

Eduardo Bolaños← Jesús Farías

78'

Delgado← Joaquín

85'

Pipo

90+3'

Aday← Pipo

90+3'

Lorenzo Bianco← Isma Fagir

Guía

Las

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Moisés Díaz

55'▲Maceo←▼Cristian

64'▲Ubay←▼Kilian

78'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

78'▲Eduardo Bolaños←▼Jesús Farías

78'▲Delgado←▼Joaquín

Guía substitutes

MaceoUbayMeloBolañosDelgado

Manager: Yoni Oujo

65'▲Idafe←▼Pol

77'▲Josémi Valencia←▼Samu

90+3'▲Aday←▼Pipo

90+3'▲Lorenzo Bianco←▼Isma Fagir

Las Palmas III substitutes

IdafeValenciaAdayBianco

Match Recap: Guía vs Las Palmas III

Las Palmas III beat Guía 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 13, 2020.

Goals: Pipo (85').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guía vs Las Palmas III