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Las Palmas II vs Rayo Majadahonda — League #879 2026

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
9/21/2025League #879League #879 · Group 5 - 3Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Las Palmas II47%
×Draw25%
Rayo Majadahonda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.58
Rayo Majadahonda
1.17

Las Palmas II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
1.67
Rayo Majadahonda
1.00

allows per match

Las Palmas II
1.33
Rayo Majadahonda
1.50

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
72%
Las Palmas II or Rayo Majadahonda
75%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
53%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
24%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
79%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
47%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
21%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
69%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
33%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
62%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.67 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.00 + Las Palmas II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
47%
level
25%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
28%

Las Palmas II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #879: Las Palmas II 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Las Palmas II beat Rayo Majadahonda 1-0 in League #879 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.