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Las Palmas II vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
11/24/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II48%
×Draw29%
Rayo Majadahonda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.27
Rayo Majadahonda
0.79

Las Palmas II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 72 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
1.08
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.62
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
77%
Las Palmas II or Rayo Majadahonda
71%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
52%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
22%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
72%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
36%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
14%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
55%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
19%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
67%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
48%
level
29%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
23%

Las Palmas II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Las Palmas II 0–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Las Palmas II and Rayo Majadahonda drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.