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Las Palmas II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
CANC
00:00
Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II50%
×Draw30%
Internacional de Madrid21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.25
Internacional de Madrid
0.69

Las Palmas II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
1.08
Internacional de Madrid
0.76

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.62
Internacional de Madrid
1.42

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
79%
Las Palmas II or Internacional de Madrid
70%
Draw or Internacional de Madrid
50%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
23%
Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
71%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
36%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
13%
Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
50%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
15%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
71%
Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
50%
level
30%
Internacional de Madrid scores more
21%

Las Palmas II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Las Palmas II host Internacional de Madrid

April 5, 2020: Las Palmas II take on Internacional de Madrid in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Las Palmas II host Internacional de Madrid at Anexo Gran Canaria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.