Internacional de Madrid 6–0 Las Palmas II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Las Palmas II

Adrián Mance 82'

Diego Simón 72'

Rufo 50', 19'

Rubén Ramos 41'

Chevi 23'

11/17/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Internacional de Madrid61%

×Draw23%

Las Palmas II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.82

Internacional de Madrid

1.81

Las Palmas II

0.82

Internacional de Madrid creates 121% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

1.82

creates per match

0.40

1.24

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Las Palmas II

0.40

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Las Palmas II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Las Palmas II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

83%

Internacional de Madrid or Las Palmas II

77%

Draw or Las Palmas II

39%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

35%

Las Palmas II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

84%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

54%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

27%

Las Palmas II 1+ goals

56%

Las Palmas II 2+ goals

20%

Las Palmas II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

79%

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

61%

level

23%

Las Palmas II scores more

17%

Internacional de Madrid at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Rufo

23'

Chevi

34'

Diego Martínez← Jurgen

34'

Manu Alemán← Josemi Castañeda

41'

Rubén Ramos

46'

Carlos Quintana← Mara

50'

Rufo

55'

Aitor Núñez← Daniel Gallardo

63'

João Pedro← Rubén Ramos

70'

Aythami Perera← Junior

72'

Diego Simón

82'

Adrián Mance

Internacional

Las

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ramos

⚽2

Rufo

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

55'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Daniel Gallardo

63'▲João Pedro←▼Rubén Ramos

70'▲Aythami Perera←▼Junior

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

NúñezPedroPereraArthurBoselliArkineValero

Manager: Juan Manuel Rodríguez

34'▲Diego Martínez←▼Jurgen

34'▲Manu Alemán←▼Josemi Castañeda

46'▲Carlos Quintana←▼Mara

Las Palmas II substitutes

MartínezAlemánQuintanaMendozaGarcíaSeguraClaudio

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Las Palmas II

Internacional de Madrid beat Las Palmas II 6-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2019.

Goals: Rufo (19', 50'), Chevi (23'), Rubén Ramos (41'), Diego Simón (72'), Adrián Mance (82').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Las Palmas II