Las Palmas II 1–0 Atlético Madrid II

Las Palmas II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Madrid II

2/2/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II38%

×Draw29%

Atlético Madrid II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.04

Las Palmas II

1.16

Atlético Madrid II

1.04

Las Palmas II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

1.46

0.62

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Las Palmas II

1.08

Atlético Madrid II

1.46

allows per match

Las Palmas II

0.62

Atlético Madrid II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw

68%

Las Palmas II or Atlético Madrid II

71%

Draw or Atlético Madrid II

62%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals

69%

Las Palmas II 2+ goals

32%

Las Palmas II 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)

54%

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Las Palmas II scores more

38%

level

29%

Atlético Madrid II scores more

32%

Las Palmas II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff