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Atlético Madrid II vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
9/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Madrid II71%
×Draw19%
Las Palmas II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
2.00
Las Palmas II
0.56

Atlético Madrid II creates 257% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.20
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.73
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
91%
Atlético Madrid II or Las Palmas II
81%
Draw or Las Palmas II
29%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
45%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
59%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
32%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
43%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
11%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
88%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
71%
level
19%
Las Palmas II scores more
9%

Atlético Madrid II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II 4 – 0 Las Palmas II

Atlético Madrid II beat Las Palmas II 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.