Larne W 0–4 Derry City W: Result & Stats

Larne W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Derry City W

Unknown 90'

C. Walsh 62'

R. Mcintyre 27'

C. Crumlish-Hawes 7'

5/23/2025

Premiership Women · Round 3Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Larne W19%

×Draw16%

Derry City W66%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Larne WExpected goals in this matchDerry City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

3.19

Larne W

1.71

Derry City W

3.19

Derry City W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

0.60

creates per match

1.59

4.80

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Larne W

0.60

Derry City W

1.59

allows per match

Larne W

4.80

Derry City W

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne W+0.00on par

Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne W ↓

Derry City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Larne W or draw

34%

Larne W or Derry City W

84%

Draw or Derry City W

81%

Winning margin

Larne W wins by 2+

8%

Derry City W wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Larne W 1+ goals

82%

Larne W 2+ goals

51%

Larne W 3+ goals

24%

Derry City W 1+ goals

96%

Derry City W 2+ goals

82%

Derry City W 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Larne W (draw refunded)

22%

Derry City W (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 4.80 · 15 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne W attack 0.60 + Derry City W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Derry City W attack 1.59 + Larne W defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Larne W scores more

19%

level

16%

Derry City W scores more

66%

Derry City W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Crumlish-Hawes

27'

R. Mcintyre

62'

C. Walsh

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff