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Derry City W vs Larne W — Premiership Women 2026

Derry City W
Derry City W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Larne W
Larne W
S. Dunne 61'
C. Toland 48' (OG)
A. Peachey 37'
S. Clare 20'
L. Dowey 20' (OG)
8/15/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 11The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Derry City W58%
×Draw18%
Larne W24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
2.67
Larne W
1.68

Derry City W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.15
Larne W
0.67

allows per match

Derry City W
2.69
Larne W
4.20

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Larne W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Larne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
76%
Derry City W or Larne W
82%
Draw or Larne W
42%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
38%
Larne W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
93%
Derry City W 2+ goals
74%
Derry City W 3+ goals
49%
Larne W 1+ goals
81%
Larne W 2+ goals
50%
Larne W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
71%
Larne W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

Larne W away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.15 + Larne W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.67

Larne W attack 0.67 + Derry City W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Derry City W scores more
58%
level
18%
Larne W scores more
24%

Derry City W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
S. Clare
20'
L. DoweyOwn goal
37'
A. Peachey
48'
C. TolandOwn goal
61'
S. Dunne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derry City W vs Larne W

Larne W beat Derry City W 4-1 in Premiership Women on August 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Clare (20'), L. Dowey (20' o.g.), A. Peachey (37'), C. Toland (48' o.g.), S. Dunne (61').

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Derry.