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Larne vs Knockbreda — League #407 2026

Larne
Larne
FT
3 – 1
Knockbreda
Knockbreda
11/18/2017League #407League #407 · Round 15Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Larne85%
×Draw10%
Knockbreda6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Larne
3.48
Knockbreda
0.84

Larne creates 314% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Larne
3.20
Knockbreda
0.88

allows per match

Larne
0.80
Knockbreda
3.75

finishing

Larne+0.00on par
Knockbreda+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Knockbreda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Larne or draw
94%
Larne or Knockbreda
90%
Draw or Knockbreda
15%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+
68%
Knockbreda wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals
97%
Larne 2+ goals
85%
Larne 3+ goals
65%
Knockbreda 1+ goals
57%
Knockbreda 2+ goals
21%
Knockbreda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)
94%
Knockbreda (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Knockbreda away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 3.20 + Knockbreda defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.48

Knockbreda attack 0.88 + Larne defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Larne scores more
85%
level
10%
Knockbreda scores more
6%

Larne at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Larne vs Knockbreda

Larne beat Knockbreda 3-1 in League #407 on November 18, 2017.

The match was played at Inver Park in Larne.