Larne 8–0 Knockbreda: Result & Stats | League #407

Larne

FT

8 – 0

Knockbreda

2/10/2018

League #407 · Relegation Round - 1Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Larne89%

×Draw8%

Knockbreda3%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LarneExpected goals in this matchKnockbreda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

0.57

Larne

3.50

Knockbreda

0.57

Larne creates 514% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

4.00

creates per match

0.86

0.29

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Larne

4.00

Knockbreda

0.86

allows per match

Larne

0.29

Knockbreda

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne+0.00on par

Knockbreda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Knockbreda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Larne or draw

97%

Larne or Knockbreda

92%

Draw or Knockbreda

11%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+

74%

Knockbreda wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals

97%

Larne 2+ goals

85%

Larne 3+ goals

66%

Knockbreda 1+ goals

43%

Knockbreda 2+ goals

11%

Knockbreda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)

97%

Knockbreda (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Knockbreda away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 4.00 + Knockbreda defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Knockbreda attack 0.86 + Larne defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Larne scores more

89%

level

8%

Knockbreda scores more

3%

Larne at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff