Larne 0–1 Ballkani: Result & Stats

Larne

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ballkani

C. Gallagher 120+7' (pen)

A. Ryan 120+5' (pen)

M. Randall 120+3' (pen)

J. Thomson 120+1' (pen)

K. Dulaj 120+6' (pen)

W. Hamidi 45' (pen)

8/15/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundInver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Larne31%

×Draw27%

Ballkani42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LarneExpected goals in this matchBallkani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.39

Larne

1.15

Ballkani

1.39

Ballkani creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

0.92

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Larne

0.92

Ballkani

1.44

allows per match

Larne

1.33

Ballkani

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne+0.00on par

Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Ballkani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Larne or draw

58%

Larne or Ballkani

73%

Draw or Ballkani

69%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+

13%

Ballkani wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals

68%

Larne 2+ goals

32%

Larne 3+ goals

11%

Ballkani 1+ goals

75%

Ballkani 2+ goals

40%

Ballkani 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)

42%

Ballkani (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 0.92 + Ballkani defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ballkani attack 1.44 + Larne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Larne scores more

31%

level

27%

Ballkani scores more

42%

Ballkani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Arber Potoku

45+1'

Walid Hamidi

45'

W. HamidiPenalty

47'

63'

73'

73'

79'

85'

90+2'

100'

101'

108'

E. Sinani← M. Ismajlgeci

111'

S. Want← L. Ives

120+1'

Tomas Cosgrove

120+1'

Shaun Want

120+1'

Sunday Adetunji

120+3'

K. Dulaj← Queven

120+4'

E. Ajazaj← A. Thaqi

120+1'

J. ThomsonPenalty

120+2'

W. HamidiMissed penalty

120+3'

M. RandallPenalty

120+4'

E. AjazajMissed penalty

120+5'

A. RyanPenalty

120+6'

K. DulajPenalty

120+7'

C. GallagherPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LarneBallkani

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots13

5Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target5

7Off Target4

0Blocked4

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls14

6Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0